In a new paper, economists warn that the economic and social costs of the Covid lockdowns will be grave. In “The Long-Term Impact of the Covid-19 Unemployment Shock,” Francesco Bianchi (Duke University), Giada Bianchi (Harvard Medical School), and Dongho Song (Johns Hopkins University) estimate there will be nearly one million deaths over the next 15 years. The abstract reads, “We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the Covid-19-related unemployment to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race/gender, resulting in a 3.0% increase in mortality rate and a 0.5% drop in life expectancy over the next 15 years for the overall American population. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while white men might suffer large consequences over longer horizons. These figures translate in a staggering 0.89 million additional deaths over the next 15 years” (“The Long-Term Impact,” working paper 28304, National Bureau of Economic Research, nber.org).
(Friday Church News Notes, February 5, 2021, www.wayoflife.org, email@example.com, 866-295-4143)